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Today in History - Red_Dragon - Oct 18, 2017 - 6:17am
 
::odd but intriguing:: - miamizsun - Oct 18, 2017 - 4:05am
 
Index » Internet/Computer » The Web » Economix Page: 1, 2, 3 ... 182, 183, 184  Next
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aflanigan
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Posted: Oct 10, 2017 - 5:43am

Richard Thaler Wins Economics Nobel for Recognizing People Are Irrational


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Posted: Jan 2, 2017 - 11:27am

Bubble, bubble, headed for trouble?
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Posted: Dec 16, 2016 - 10:01am

 islander wrote:

While true, this is a bit misleading when it comes to consequences. Japan and Chine own ~2.5 trillion in US treasury debt. Other nations hold another 3 and change trillion. So while 76 Billion is a lot, it's only 3%. The sum total of all the moves last year is about 5%. It's certainly a re balance and statement on their confidence (especially considering the recent escalation), but it's not like they are dumping debt. The US still controls ~13 trillion of our debt. That's money owed internally. It's a lot, it's problematic, but given the state of the global economy it's not even that unexpected.  If anyone wants to unload their T-bills because they think they are "worthless IOUs" please contact me ASAP, we can work out a deal. 

 
the consequences are rates are up over 1% in the last couple months, and climbing.  I'm no bond expert, but when a top holder dumps more than 10% of their position and shows no sign of changing...
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Posted: Dec 16, 2016 - 8:51am

 black321 wrote:
Everyone's watching the stock market, but what about the bond market?  Not so good over there.  Is the US losing the support of its largest creditor?   With Trumps plans to boost spending and cut taxes, whose gonna bail the US out?

Negative $18.3 billion — That’s the amount of Treasury bonds and notes bought in October, according to fresh data from the U.S. Treasury Department. In other words, “private” foreign investors sold $18.3 billion more than they bought, explains Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter.China was the biggest seller, he says...And “official” foreign investors, which include central banks, dumped a net $45.3 billion in Treasury bonds and notes. Combined, they unloaded $63.5 billion in October. In September, these foreign entities had already dumped a record $76.6 billion. They have now dumped Treasury paper for seven months in a row. Over the past 12 months through October, they unloaded $318.2 billion.


 
While true, this is a bit misleading when it comes to consequences. Japan and Chine own ~2.5 trillion in US treasury debt. Other nations hold another 3 and change trillion. So while 76 Billion is a lot, it's only 3%. The sum total of all the moves last year is about 5%. It's certainly a re balance and statement on their confidence (especially considering the recent escalation), but it's not like they are dumping debt. The US still controls ~13 trillion of our debt. That's money owed internally. It's a lot, it's problematic, but given the state of the global economy it's not even that unexpected.  If anyone wants to unload their T-bills because they think they are "worthless IOUs" please contact me ASAP, we can work out a deal. 


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Posted: Dec 16, 2016 - 8:34am

 Red_Dragon wrote:

China is selling, and Japan is buying.

 
Japan is selling too, but at a slower rate. 
Red_Dragon

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Posted: Dec 16, 2016 - 8:07am

 black321 wrote:
Everyone's watching the stock market, but what about the bond market?  Not so good over there.  Is the US losing the support of its largest creditor?   With Trumps plans to boost spending and cut taxes, whose gonna bail the US out?

Negative $18.3 billion — That’s the amount of Treasury bonds and notes bought in October, according to fresh data from the U.S. Treasury Department. In other words, “private” foreign investors sold $18.3 billion more than they bought, explains Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter.China was the biggest seller, he says...And “official” foreign investors, which include central banks, dumped a net $45.3 billion in Treasury bonds and notes. Combined, they unloaded $63.5 billion in October. In September, these foreign entities had already dumped a record $76.6 billion. They have now dumped Treasury paper for seven months in a row. Over the past 12 months through October, they unloaded $318.2 billion.


 
China is selling, and Japan is buying.
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Posted: Dec 16, 2016 - 6:26am

Everyone's watching the stock market, but what about the bond market?  Not so good over there.  Is the US losing the support of its largest creditor?   With Trumps plans to boost spending and cut taxes, whose gonna bail the US out?

Negative $18.3 billion — That’s the amount of Treasury bonds and notes bought in October, according to fresh data from the U.S. Treasury Department. In other words, “private” foreign investors sold $18.3 billion more than they bought, explains Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter.China was the biggest seller, he says...And “official” foreign investors, which include central banks, dumped a net $45.3 billion in Treasury bonds and notes. Combined, they unloaded $63.5 billion in October. In September, these foreign entities had already dumped a record $76.6 billion. They have now dumped Treasury paper for seven months in a row. Over the past 12 months through October, they unloaded $318.2 billion.

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Posted: Jun 7, 2016 - 1:09pm

Fascinating article.

The Invisible Helping Hand 
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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 2:11pm

 Lazy8 wrote:
aflanigan wrote:
Without going into the merits of your theory, prices and employment are two different things.

Of course. That's why, when you support a policy regardless of its consequences, you pick the metric that obscures those consequences.

Ultimately it's really too early to tell in this experiment (which is why the word "initial" is at the beginning of the headline, and this caveat was pretty clear in the article) whether the pessimistic predictions of price inflation and/or job loss are accurate, and what happens in one area may not be expandable to different areas or the entire country.

When the data isn't going your way it's always too early to tell.

 
Nice to see that you're keeping an open mind while pretending to be able to read everyone else's.
{#Wink} 


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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 1:17pm

aflanigan wrote:
Without going into the merits of your theory, prices and employment are two different things.

Of course. That's why, when you support a policy regardless of its consequences, you pick the metric that obscures those consequences.

Ultimately it's really too early to tell in this experiment (which is why the word "initial" is at the beginning of the headline, and this caveat was pretty clear in the article) whether the pessimistic predictions of price inflation and/or job loss are accurate, and what happens in one area may not be expandable to different areas or the entire country.

When the data isn't going your way it's always too early to tell.
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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 12:57pm

 Lazy8 wrote:
 aflanigan wrote:
You do know the difference between apples and oranges, right?

Employers are engaging in wage arbitrage, shifting low-skill work out of high-cost areas. Raising prices isn't the only strategy to cope with rising labor costs without a corresponding rise in productivity; you can reorganize to minimize the labor content of the goods and services you offer. Which lowers low-skill employment.

As happened.

 
Without going into the merits of your theory, prices and employment are two different things.

Ultimately it's really too early to tell in this experiment (which is why the word "initial" is at the beginning of the headline, and this caveat was pretty clear in the article) whether the pessimistic predictions of price inflation and/or job loss are accurate, and what happens in one area may not be expandable to different areas or the entire country.


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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 12:46pm

 aflanigan wrote:
You do know the difference between apples and oranges, right?

Employers are engaging in wage arbitrage, shifting low-skill work out of high-cost areas. Raising prices isn't the only strategy to cope with rising labor costs without a corresponding rise in productivity; you can reorganize to minimize the labor content of the goods and services you offer. Which lowers low-skill employment.

As happened.
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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 12:20pm

 miamizsun wrote:


i think that depends on who you ask

there's going to be spin on both sides

 
You do know the difference between apples and oranges, right?
 
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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 9:35am

 aflanigan wrote: 

i think that depends on who you ask

there's going to be spin on both sides

Hey, Seattle! How's that $15 minimum wage working out for ya?

 

How can we be sure that the increase in minimum wage is to blame?  Employment in the neighboring suburbs of the city have hit a record high:

Update: The chart below shows that while the city of Seattle experienced a sharp drop in employment of more than 11,000 jobs between April and December last year (light blue line, BLS data available here), employment in Seattle’s neighboring suburbs outside the city limits (the Seattle MSA jobs less Seattle city jobs) increased over that period by nearly 57,000 jobs and reached a new record high in November 2015 before falling slightly in December.

Bottom Line II: Additional evidence showing that while jobs in the city of Seattle were tanking starting last April, employment in the suburbs surrounding Seattle was increasing steadily to a new record high in November.  That departure in employment trends: job declines inside the city limits of Seattle compared to increasing employment outside the city limits suggests the possibility that the difference in labor costs could have been a contributing factor.

 

 


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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 9:14am

 Proclivities wrote:

It's a good thing I was sitting while reading such astonishing news.

 
{#Lol}
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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 9:12am

 aflanigan wrote: 
It's a good thing I was sitting while reading such astonishing news.
Red_Dragon

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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 9:11am

 aflanigan wrote: 
Imagine that.
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Posted: Apr 27, 2016 - 9:02am

Early analysis of Seattle’s $15 wage law: Effect on prices minimal one year after implementation


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Posted: Apr 26, 2016 - 10:51pm

You know who really doesn't need it and in the U.S we're paying for it through the nose in taxes? Corporations that get billions in gov't welfare ("subsidies") while making record profits, and higher tax brackets which enjoy billions in various loopholes and tax havens that average and low incomes do not have. Some corporations pay no tax at all.

700 euros/month is a drop in the ocean in comparison.


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Posted: Apr 26, 2016 - 2:10am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

This idea has been touted quite a bit here and I find it really attractive. I bet a huge wad of the funding you need for it could be found by cutting out the bureaucracy needed for all the other welfare schemes, so I doubt that it is actually as expensive as it sounds.  And I doubt very much that people would become lazy. On the contrary, I think people would be more motivated to work for that bit extra. It would also stimulate a huge arts and crafts industry as their goods could be priced lower if the artisans no longer have to secure their existence, i.e. it would foster more diversity (not necessarily quality, but hey). And it would guarantee everyone a basic existence. Sounds good to me.

 
Meet for example Bob de Bouwer with his lovely wife Sasja Schoonmaakster. (This is a situation I worked on as voluntairy debt relief worker in the Netherlands) He was a carpenter and she used to clean office buildings for a living. Their income used to be (after taxes) 1800 euro's a month for him and 1100 euro's a month for her. Combined it was a respectable 2900 euro's. They bought a small house and they have 3 kids. After the mortgage and other housing costs, insurance, an array of taxes and the cost for the children they had around 900 euro's to spend on things like food, clothing, the car, holidays and so on. It was not much but enough to have a good life. At the end of the month all the money was spend. There was no real room for money saving.

But then Bob lost his job. At first he got 70% of his income to live from. This is from a social income made for people that lost their jobs. They had to cut back on spending. The car and the holidays had to go. Then the housing market collapsed and he wasn't able to find a new job within 2 years. After 2 years the social income for jobless people stops and you get an other social income type called the 'bijstand' in the Netherlands. In their situation with 3 kids this income is around 1150 euro a month. But you do not get this money while you have an other income or when you own an house. So they had to live from the money Sasja made with her cleaning job. Obviously this was not enough. They had to sell the house. During this time she was in a lot of stress and because of that she lost her job too.

After selling the house I helped them to rent a house from the social housing project in their town. They still had some money from selling the old house and this is not allowed so they took the money from the bank and suddenly this problem is solved. Because they got 3 kids they qualitied for a pretty large house. Larger and newer than the home they owned. So they were not that unhappy about it. The rent was normally 650 euro a month. Already ridiculously low compared to what they got for the money, but because they had to live from a social income they also qualified for government funded rent cut backs reducing the rent to just 380 euro's. Also they were suddenly qualified for remission of the taxes they normally had to pay and a lot of costs around having children suddenly became subsidised as well. Even insurrance costs are subsidised by the government. They used to have financial room for around 900 euro's. Now we calculated that there was around 700 euro's a month to life from. Just a 200 euro cut back, but now they do not have to work anymore.

They only really would like to own a car. This is not allowed when you receive 'bijstand', unless the car is very cheap. So they bought a car from a friend. On paper it was worth just 2000 euro's, but they paid him 5000 euro's in cash from some of the money they got selling the house. Sitting at home doing nothing stops being cool after some time so he started to work again as a carpenter. Not officially but off the books. Just around 20 hours a week at houses from friends of friends for an average of 18 euro's an hour. She found a few houses to do some off the book cleaning for elderly people. Also for 20 hours a week and for an average of 12 euro's an hour. All cash. This way they were/are able to make 2500 euro's a month free from tax. Suddenly the situation becomes very different. They have around 3400 euros to spend compared tot the 900 euro's they used to have. And just for 50% of the work they had to do. The only problem is that it's all cash and they have to be careful not to spend too much of it so they are saving a lot of money because they want to buy a house in Spain after he turns 65 and the 'bijstand' stops and the government aided pension starts. Then the government stops looking at the money you spend and you can do what you want. They really are very happy with this new situation and every year more and more people discover the amazing possibilities of having the rich life on a government income.

It's true that they now choose how much they want to work. He can have work for 40 hours a week, but he thinks he doesn't need more income so 20 hours is just fine. Immigrants coming from poor countries and being accustomed to live from even less money do not see the need to work at all.
Recently people discovered that the government has rules ensuring that every human in the Netherlands has a certain level of comfort. Those rules forbid for example that someone that does not pay the rent of a public house get kicked out of the house. Or if someone does not pay for the water or electricity he/she is not allowed to be cut off by the delivering company when kids are involved. So a lot of people stop paying the rent and/or the energy bills because there is effectively no penalty for this. Great isn't it?!

There are leaflets found from people smugglers advertising this paradise system in the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany to the poor war victims from Syria and every other human that's interested. This is the main reason people care to walk from Greece to these social paradises.

The only problem is that this system must be paid. Therefor the taxes for the working class is increased again this month by 0.4% in the Netherlands. If I would be 'smart' I would have to choose the social lifestyle too, but I'm too proud to be a human parasite.
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