Despite airline schedule changes and capacity being redirected to other markets, a more troubling trend emerges from forward demand data: future flight bookings between Canada and the US have collapsed.
Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we've compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking â bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.
For all scheduled airlines operating between the United States and Canada any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and when taking place at such short notice. Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences is once again impacting the airline industry adding to what had already become a softening market. For those that are still planning to travel there may be some airlines offering particularly cheap airfares over the next few months as they seek to stimulate demand but for the airlines it will be a nervous few months, especially as the traditional "snowbird" market from Canada to the US could be badly impacted next year if the situation doesnât improve quickly.
(...) When I finally landed in Canada, my mom and two best friends were waiting for me. So was the media. I spoke to them briefly, numb and delusional from exhaustion.
It was surreal listening to my friends recount everything they had done to get me out: working with lawyers, reaching out to the media, making endless calls to detention centers, desperately trying to get through to Ice or anyone who could help. They said the entire system felt rigged, designed to make it nearly impossible for anyone to get out.
The reality became clear: Ice detention isnât just a bureaucratic nightmare. Itâs a business. These facilities are privately owned and run for profit.
Companies like CoreCivic and GEO Group receive government funding based on the number of people they detain, which is why they lobby for stricter immigration policies. Itâs a lucrative business: CoreCivic made over $560m from Ice contracts in a single year. In 2024, GEO Group made more than $763m from Ice contracts.
The more detainees, the more money they make. It stands to reason that these companies have no incentive to release people quickly. What I had experienced was finally starting to make sense.
Does anyone remember the board game RISK? I sucked at that game, but the men in my family were great at taking other countries "just because" they could. In the case of Trumptie Dumptie, it's not unlike the board game. He and his puff daddy Vlad want what they want and will do anything to get it. Europe is up for grabs too, but I'd rather be on this side of the pond that back in the un-united states. I can only hope for karma gives them what they deserve.
Does anyone remember the board game RISK? I sucked at that game, but the men in my family were great at taking other countries "just because" they could. In the case of Trumptie Dumptie, it's not unlike the board game. He and his puff daddy Vlad want what they want and will do anything to get it. Europe is up for grabs too, but I'd rather be on this side of the pond that back in the un-united states. I can only hope for karma gives them what they deserve.
