PS. Public debt to GDP was comparably high during Trump's tenure compared to 2022.

 black321 wrote:

ok, I'll do the work for you (yes I'm feeling snarky today, apologies in advance). 
1. my OECD data put the average public debt to GDP at 210%. So 217% is not that much higher than the long-term average.  
2. Yes, you are right on credit card debt reaching 1 trillion.
3. However, credit card debt only accounts for 5.8% of total household debt using Q2 2023 figures 
4. You would think that if excessive debt has been issued, there would be higher defaults on credit card debt, but this is not the case:
  "Delinquency rates were roughly flat in the second quarter of 2023 and remained low, after declining sharply since the beginning of the pandemic." (from the above source).
.  Admittedly, this might change rapidly in a recession.
5. You are right on public debt. I would be a little unsettled at 130% of GDP too. The U.S. is on the wrong end of the chart on this one. 

ok, that was my 10 minutes of public service for the day.

I suspect that if Biden is re-elected the Democrats will rein in public spending to get the public debt down again as they frequently do in their second term.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

So your data shows a rising trend - 165% in 1995, which was already high, to 218 in 2022, 53 pts higher...and that data is compromised by the pandemic (it likely jumped again in 2023)
Credit card debt passed $1t in 3Q, and by most estimates continued to grow in 4Q, while rates are above 20%. 
At the same time, the pandemic savings surplus has been squandered on pickle ball racquets and tshirts...with the savings rate now around 4%, compared to 5% to 6% historical.

No offense but, one doesn't need to look that hard to see the U.S. and most of the western world has a debt problem and is living beyond its means. This is especially apparent for the low to middle-income consumer, who in the US has been in a recession since 2022.

And then there is the public debt, which grew by over 50% since the pandemic to over $30T. 

 black321 wrote:
"Private Debt to GDP in the United States decreased to 217.80 percent in 2022 from 223.30 percent in 2021. Private Debt to GDP in the United States averaged 210.46 percent from 1995 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 235.30 percent in 2020 and a record low of 165.10 percent in 1995." source: OECD.


if you have figures for 2023, please post them.

 black321 wrote:

It's the American Way!

 Red_Dragon wrote:

Much of which was supported by record credit card spending...while rates are above 20%
As long as we ignore the unsustainable debt, everything is fine

US economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.3% pace last quarter, pointing to continued resilience

 rgio wrote:
Agreed.  We do some crazy things up here in Canada but I am appalled at the complexity of tax credits, exemptions, different tax rates, etc., etc., one can find the USA.  Especially for savings and investments.  The system should be encouraging all people to save and invest, not create barriers to entry for the less sophisticated.

In Canada, we have this annoying habit of subsidizing every greenfield industrial project that surfaces and promises to hire more than a dozen bodies.  The economic rationale is almost always absent but politicians want to be seen helping to "create jobs".  That means less public funding for education, social services and basic R&D into energy storage.

 westslope wrote:

The economy is in "stronger than expected shape" because consumers kept buying stuff and services by drawing down their savings and ramping up their borrowings.
Which is like saying Sears sold more shit than ever last year by borrowing money to fund its inventory which it sold at below cost.

 westslope wrote:
Sure they do...the Republicans want to eliminate pretty much every government entitlement program because the base doesn't appreciate they are among the primary beneficiaries of the programs while they support tax cuts for people who have sold them that anything is possible... while the Democrats want to tax too few people to make up the shortfall without cutting anything.

The US problem is that the lobbyists can buy protection for everything, ensuring gridlock.   How can folks say that we need to reduce medicare costs, and then vote against negotiating drug prices? Tell people what they can and can't do about their health, and then remove thousands of people from healthcare entitlements. 

The US government needs to simplify and digitize.  We wouldn't need 88,000 more IRS agents if the rules weren't so F*#king complicated.  Carried interest, R&D tax credits, offshore income, active vs. passive income, itemized deductions, state and local rules, sales tax, inheritance tax....it's formal insanity.

I have spent the past 4 years working in sales tax, and there are upwards of 300 million rules in the US.  That's provided me with an opportunity, but only because the government enables such rampant stupidity.  I've had conversations with a state that accepted our system would eliminate 75% of the work for state auditors, only to have them say "Then what do I do with my people"?  150 auditors in one state....at 75k each or more...is over $11M in savings for a system that might cost them $1M/year.   People are the proxy of authority in the government, so nobody wants to shrink their fiefdom.  That could put them at risk... and as a friend of mine always says..."turkeys don't vote for Thanksgiving".

The debt has to go down.  The last President took the "greatest economy in history" and turned it into a deficit (before the pandemic).  We should have been paying down our debts and raising taxes...not socializing the redistribution of wealth to the top 3%.  If he wins again...he'll give more to the wealthy by eliminating support for those in need...and then complain that there are too many homeless and crime is too high.

You're right... neither party seems to have a clue how to fix it... but then again, nobody seems to want to do the math and find someone who can do something about the problem.  Party-on!!

 black321 wrote:
The US economy is much stronger than many would have forecast going back a year or so.  But yes, the finances suck a big one.  Trouble is none of the two major parties have a plan to get federal finances into a surplus budgetary situation.  

The irony is that the debt is close to unsustainable while the USA engages in two major wars that pose the risk of escalating horizontally and vertically.  As if the 'old rules' of fiscal soundness and military strength no longer apply.  

 kurtster wrote:

These adjustments happen all the time. How many bps does this reflect maybe 20 bps? 
Point is, data isnt perfect, but it provides general trends of where the markets are...and generally the labor market is still pretty tight, in the aggregate.
Ave earnings were also up 4.1% in December. 

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023

The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.

That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.

Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher.

Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.

This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks.

 black321 wrote: 
The interest payment on that $34 Trillion last year was $659 Billion and is expected to go over $800 Billion in 2024. 

It will or already has exceeded our annual defense budget.

The BRIC alliance is ever so much closer to ending the Dollar's international reserve currency status.  When that happens, we are toast, overnight.

Tthe biggest problem, which no one likes to talk about, is debt...from the gov down to the consumer.
$1.7t deficit adding to over $34T in US natl debt, up over 50% or $12T since FYE19.
Consumer credit card debt over $1T and climbing, with interest rates over 20%

OK, the economy is "strong" because people are "consuming"...but our finances suck.

US employers add a surprisingly strong 216,000 jobs in a sign of continued economic strength

One thing you often hear is that wage growth hasnt kept pace with inflation...took a quick look, and if you compare real earnings as of Feb 2020 and Nov 2023, real earnings are essentially flat (up about 60 bps).

Real hourly/weekly earnings were $11.01/$378.73 in Feb 2020 and $11.07/$380.96 in Nov 2023, per BLS.

Rice prices spike to 15 year high.

I remember them spiking few years ago, and the majority of people in India had to suffer from hunger, due to rice being traded on Wall Street. Similar to wheat prices which helped causing the 'Arab Spring' in Egypt.

When will those Wolves of Wall Street finally be decapitated?

I guess, only another Trump could do this. And, of course, everyone of us on our own small scale, if only we cared enough to think and act, beyond our private doorstep.

Spotify will end service in Uruguay due to bill requiring fair pay for artists

The strength of the US economy and a few other economies heading into late 2023 have surprised a lot of observers.   

That said, a US recession looks increasingly inevitable at this point.  Hopefully inflation gets truly knocked back.  Food inflation has been particularly brutal for the poor and low-income workers.   

Recession start date?  Hard to say.  The US economy could already be in a recession.  Or the US recession will start sometime between now and May 2024.  With the complexity of the NBER dating system, we won't know for many months after the fact.  


NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough

The current or impending recession should be relatively short and shallow.  The downside risk consists of higher for longer real borrowing costs.   Both the proxy war in Ukraine and the recent flare up in the former Palestinian Mandate contribute to higher real capital costs.  Directly and indirectly.  Among other factors, looks like there might an increase of ~$1.50 in the security premium built into the benchmark prices of oil.  How that evolves and how long that last depends.   Higher priced oil could nudge the Federal Reserve to once again raise overnight rates in November.

—————————

Saw a rumour the other day that Paul Krugman was being considered for Chair of the Federal Reserve.  That would be a gigantic mistake in my opinion and would certainly contribute to higher real borrowing costs for longer were that to materialize.

Bright side?   Low-risk fixed income assets are offering much higher yields than they have in several decades.  Great news for risk averse retirees.