On tariffs. you're overlooking the intense pressure from both Pelosi and Schummer to go all in on tariffs across the board on everything coming out of China. They think Trump is being soft on China ?. ......
No. I have very low expectations for the Democrats. If one partisan unit in USA was ultimately responsible for the Sept. 11th attacks, it was the Democrats.
Note that senior democrats including Hillary Clinton supported invading and occupying Iraq which ultimately begat Dae'sh/ISIS/ISIL and then gave the USA yet another pretext to militarily invade a country and kill more civilians.
When I listen to Trump's misrepresentation of trade and investment with China along with the usual outright lies, I am reminded that racism is an important driver for both Democrats and Republicans, both domestically and in the foreign policy sphere.
The DJSE is down 600 points this morning. Thanks, Donnie!
Worse yet are all the accusations of currency manipulation. God, Americans are dumb.
Trump just imposed 10% tariffs on the rest of Chinese imports not already under punitive trade war tariffs. What would you expect the currency to do? Seriously.
Do people understand what drives currency exchange rates near-term? I guess not. (Hint: net foreign investment flows and overall demand for the currency.)
The big sin of the Chinese from the Trump me-me-me perspective is that the Chinese state did not take unusual measures to halt or slow the decline in the value of the yuan. Incidentally, I listened earlier this morning to a pundit on Bloomberg Business TV this morning comment that additional tariffs were driven by Trump's frustration with the feeble Federal Reserve overnight rate cut. True? Maybe not, but certainly an indicator that many view the current President as an impetuous man-child.
I pay attention to FOREX and commodities in general. I still don't really get the ins and outs of bonds, but I understand interest rates overall.
I forget who said it but they said that if you want to track and measure an economy, count box cars. That will tell you what is being made and moved around. A rise in idle box cars mean things are slowing down and vice versa.
As the ECB goes negative on its interest rates, cash migrates and is actually flooding into US Treasuries, driving the yield lower and lower. As long as the US Treasury is paying higher interest rates than everyone else, the cash will naturally go there. A flight to safety. Conversely this causes the dollar to rise against all other currencies. With commodities, the % change in price is as much directly dependent on exchange rates as much as on supply / demand.
On tariffs. you're overlooking the intense pressure from both Pelosi and Schummer to go all in on tariffs across the board on everything coming out of China. They think Trump is being soft on China ????.
Some stats that I heard this morning on Fox Business ... the value of the Yuan has only decreased 4% in the past 11 years and that includes today. China is no longer the US's biggest trading partner. Chinese exports to the US have fallen 12% since the beginning on this year. Devaluing the Yuan is harder on the ordinary Chinese than anyone else. They lose with a reduced buying power. Their GPD growth rate is falling. Hong Kong is happening. I'm sure that is on your radar being in BC an all with all the HK expats in the PNW.
And even talk about deflation. I am a believer that deflation is a good thing, especially for those of us on the bottom end of the income scale and those on fixed incomes. We can have growth in our GDP without inflation. That we cannot is a myth.
The world is in a whole new economic paradigm. Supply chains are moving around, adjusting. Manufacturers are relocating to other SE Asian countries to avoid the tariffs. As that happens, it keeps prices down for the US consumer. Manufacturing is no longer a static process. Again China is losing. The US is pretty much energy independent for the first in like, forever. Foreign interests of the US no longer have to be decided primarily by dependence on foreign energy suppliers. We have full employment, wages are actually rising and there is no inflation. Usually the opposite is true. The US economy is solid, we do have the capacity to manufacture ourselves into prosperity and keep our money inside the US and reuse it rather than export it. If the US is to grow the welfare state, keeping our money home is even more important than ever before.
It seems clear and Trump has already called it out that China will most likely do nothing and wait out Trump and hope he gets defeated in 2020. The Chinese are pulling for the democrats in 2020. The US is in good enough shape economically to ride it out. China on the other hand seems to be headed for some serious belt tightening.
It's Monday. There was a whole bunch of pent up programmed trading taking place this AM. I'm not worried. This will be a buying opportunity for those that can do so.
Alleged killers in Christchurch, New Zealand; Poway, California; and El Paso, Texas believed a theory that claims white people are being âreplacedâ by people of color through mass immigration. Conspiracy theorists often falsely claim this is a deliberate effort by any number of groups demonized on the far right: liberals, Democrats, Jews, Muslims. Itâs the theory peddled by white supremacist groups seeking recruits and the torch-bearing marchers in Charlottesville two years ago. Itâs also a thinly disguisedâand often not disguisedâtalking point from some conservative politicians and pundits, experts say. (...)
ISIS terror and white supremacist terror both require a wide network of online extremists potentially ready to commit violence for the cause. The difference with the current wave of white supremacist violence, Watts said, is that white supremacists are decentralized and do their organizing through a leaderless online movement, rather than following orders from recognized leaders.
Media treatment of ISIS and white supremacist violence are also different, Watts noted. âWhatâs remarkable that our response (to white violence) is just, âeh, this guy is a bad apple; heâs crazy,â he said. (...)
Sometimes, the white supremacist rhetoric actually comes from conservative media and politicians, Beirich said.
These figures are ânot always using the term âGreat Replacement,ââ she said, but âeven from Trump and others, thereâs a lot of talk about Latinos âinvadingâ the United States, about the idea that Democrats like immigrants because theyâre going to vote for the Democratic Party, the ideaâwhich weâve heard from Trump, Tucker Carlson, and othersâthat white people are basically being pushed out of their areas by these new populations.â
The DJSE is down 600 points this morning. Thanks, Donnie!
Worse yet are all the accusations of currency manipulation. God, Americans are dumb.
Trump just imposed 10% tariffs on the rest of Chinese imports not already under punitive trade war tariffs. What would you expect the currency to do? Seriously.
Do people understand what drives currency exchange rates near-term? I guess not. (Hint: net foreign investment flows and overall demand for the currency.)
The big sin of the Chinese from the Trump me-me-me perspective is that the Chinese state did not take unusual measures to halt or slow the decline in the value of the yuan.
Incidentally, I listened earlier this morning to a pundit on Bloomberg Business TV this morning comment that additional tariffs were driven by Trump's frustration with the feeble Federal Reserve overnight rate cut. True? Maybe not, but certainly an indicator that many view the current President as an impetuous man-child.
Trump was the first man in history to be in three places at once. On 9/11, Donald was downtown being a first responder WHILE he was in NJ watching Muslims celebrate WHILE he was in Trump Tower calling TV stations to brag about his building now being the tallest.
Well, the last one rings true...
If you click on that link, you'll get taken to a Twitter page with a video clip of Trump talking on the phone with a TV news reporter about how his building, 40 Wall Street, became the tallest building on Wall Street again after the collapse of the WTC towers. So yes: rings true because it is true.
Another layer of Trump BS to the story: one of the people commenting on that linked Twitter post (@RockandRhone) claims this:
"I managed/ leased 40 Wall Street in the 1980s. Trump bought it in 1995. 70 Pine Street (former AIG building built in 1932) was 25' taller than 40 Wall St (built in 1930). Everyone in NYC real estate know Trump lies. He added 11 floors in height to Trump Tower that don't exist."
and also:
"... 40 Wall Street is where Trump housed his infamous Trump University that defrauded people who didn't know how dishonest Trump is."
Such an ENDLESS stream of lies and narcissistic brags.
...... Successful politicians all lack principals, but historically we drew lines and punished those who were exposed for doing things we collectively agreed were wrong. Right and wrong aren't selective, and justifying wrong when you don't like the alternative doesn't make it right, it makes you weak.
Successful politicians know how to make compromises. Successful politicians talk to everybody. Though I suppose some American politicians have enjoyed success via less talking and more aerial bombing.
Successful politicians sometimes fail to respect promises, e.g., former prime minister Jean Chretien, one of the most successful Canadian federal leaders in the post-war period, who said he would cut the GST (federal value-added sales tax) and then did not. He managed to restore sanity to Canada's then dismal federal government fiscal situation.
(Liberal Chretien's time in office was followed by a Conservative PM who spent money like crazy. Sound familiar?)
Successful politicians do change their opinions and are known to listen carefully to advisors.
Most successful politicians in the post-war period were technocrats. Though they bowed to special interests as always, they paid attention to experts. Maybe that has changed. Maybe successful politicians going forward will be the ones that ignore experts and listen attentively to voters' immediate desires.
Once upon a time, successful politicians showed 'leadership' (even if it was mostly a mirage) but now it appears that following crowd instincts is the key to political success. 'Leadership' manifests itself in marketing and rhetoric.
this true for all presidents and most of the political leadership for ages
and principled thought has been around for a long time
it has just been selectively applied (especially in politics)
Successful politicians all lack principals, but historically we drew lines and punished those who were exposed for doing things we collectively agreed were wrong. Right and wrong aren't selective, and justifying wrong when you don't like the alternative doesn't make it right, it makes you weak.